🔗 Share this article

Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although experts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.